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    The impact of future policy on domestic aggregated MDI

    Source: the time of issue:2016/12/10 Number of clicks: 1719 second

    At the end of the year, domestic market participants not only pay attention to the domestic market review and prospects in 2016, but also pay attention to the impact of future policies on the domestic market for polymerized MDI.

    First, the impact of 13th Five-Year policy on the future development of MDI industry.

    During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the focus of the development of polyurethane foam plastics industry will be around the concept of "environmental protection, innovation, safety, energy saving, high efficiency and development", around the country's major industrial projects, to achieve the demand growth in building energy saving, automotive equipment, high-speed railway, and realize the direction of key technology and equipment enterprises Large-scale, technological modernization, product functionalization and refinement should be developed to strengthen the construction of public service platform.

    At present, polycarboxylic acid monomer manufacturer, in the future, the most potential development of domestic poly-MDI downstream is in the field of building energy conservation, China has the largest building market in the world, the existing building area is 40 billion m2, the annual construction capacity is 2 billion m2, and at present, 95% of the new buildings in China are still high-energy buildings, building energy. Consumption has reached 27% of the energy consumption of the whole society. If energy-saving measures are not taken, 50% of the national energy will be consumed in buildings by 2020. Building energy efficiency is an important measure to achieve low carbon green economy in China. At present, the Ministry of Housing and Construction and other relevant ministries and commissions have formulated the implementation plan of building energy conservation, and mandatory implementation of Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other six major cities all buildings to one step to achieve 65% energy-saving standards. By 2020, 75% of the new buildings will be saved in the east, 65% in the middle and west, and most of the buildings will be rebuilt.

    Polyurethane rigid foam materials are widely used in wall insulation materials, door and window insulation materials, roofing insulation materials because of its excellent insulation, waterproof, wind pressure resistance, impact resistance and other properties, using spraying, pouring, veneer and other construction forms. Polycarboxylic acid monomer manufacturers in recent years, due to CCTV, Shanghai teachers'apartments and other fires, the Ministry of Public Security Fire Protection Bureau issued relevant policies, polyurethane insulation materials were unfair treatment for a period of time, related enterprises suffer. With the announcement of the State Council's "State Council's Opinions on Strengthening and Improving Fire Protection Work", the restrictions on the use of organic materials have been relaxed. The new national standard GB50016-2014 "Code for Fire Protection in Architectural Design" has been formally implemented, and the market space of polyurethane insulation materials will be larger and larger. If the proportion of polyurethane rigid foam used in external insulation is from 5% to 30%, then the development prospect of polyurethane rigid foam as raw material for polymerization of MDI will be better and better.

    Second, the impact of preferential export tax rebates on the domestic aggregate MDI industry.

    The export rebate of domestic polymerized MDI products has been adjusted from 13% to 17%, which brings a good opportunity for the export of domestic polymerized MDI enterprises.

    Third, the new version of the refrigerator energy efficiency standard GB 12021.2-2015 "household refrigerators power consumption limits and energy efficiency levels" from October 1, 2016 to implement.

    Under the new standards, refrigerators with the same level of energy efficiency requirements significantly increased, such as the first-class energy efficiency products will reduce electricity consumption by 40%. With the coming of the new standard, the country's subsidy policy for refrigerators will also be adjusted. Compared with the original standard, the new standard improves the evaluation, testing and calculation methods of energy efficiency of products, makes the test value of power consumption of products more in line with the actual use situation, and requires higher power consumption of products. Under the new standard, the power consumption of grade 1 products will be reduced by 40%, and the consumption of power of grade 2 products will be reduced by 12.5%. Therefore, after the implementation of the new standard, the proportion of grade 1 energy efficiency products will be reduced to about 5%, less than 10%, and the proportion of grade 2 products will also be reduced to 10% to 20%. This means that there will be a large number of product downgrades under the new standards in the future, such as the first level of energy efficiency will be downgraded to the second level. According to data, the proportion of degraded products will be around 80%.

    Polycarboxylic acid monomer manufacturers pointed out that behind these, is the cost of refrigerator enterprises to increase, resulting in product pricing. Although some enterprises have said that since many years ago, enterprises have focused on improving energy-saving performance of products, far exceeding the national standards, so the standard increase has little impact on enterprise costs and profits, but there are also a large number of second-and third-line brands, if you want to further improve the competitiveness of enterprises, improve the level of energy-saving products, will face the cost. Rising pressure. In the future, the growth rate of refrigerators in the first big industry in the lower reaches of MDI will slow down.

    Fourth, the vehicle purchase tax was halved by the end of 2016.

    Car purchasing tax cut below 1.6 litres by half until the end of December 2016 is expected to have a negative impact on the future production and sales of the automotive industry.

    Fifth, the future housing policy will be tightened.

    More than 20 cities across the country recently introduced real estate regulation and control policies, for the overheated property market stepped on the "brake". Over the past 15 years, China's real estate industry has grown at an annual rate of more than 20%. The growth rate of investment in real estate development across the country fell in 2015 to the lowest level since data records began in 2000, at only 1%. The latest figures from the State Bureau of Statistics show that in the first 10 months of this year, investment in real estate development increased by 6.6% in nominal terms. In the future, the reduction of real estate policy, the real estate market may usher in a short-term adjustment period, the real estate market will affect the development of the appliance industry.

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